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Abstract Drylands are unique among terrestrial ecosystems in that they have a significant proportion of primary production facilitated by non‐vascular plants such as colonial cyanobacteria, moss, and lichens, i.e., biocrusts, which occur on and in the surface soil. Biocrusts inhabit all continents, including Antarctica, an increasingly dynamic continent on the precipice of change. Here, we describe in‐situ field surveying and sampling, remote sensing, and modeling approaches to assess the habitat suitability of biocrusts in the Lake Fryxell basin of Taylor Valley, Antarctica, which is the main site of the McMurdo Dry Valleys Long‐Term Ecological Research Program. Soils suitable for the development of biocrusts are typically wetter, less alkaline, and less saline compared to unvegetated soils. Using random forest models, we show that gravimetric water content, electrical conductivity, and snow frequency are the top predictors of biocrust presence and biomass. Areas most suitable for the growth of dense biocrusts are soils associated with seasonal snow patches. Using geospatial data to extrapolate our habitat suitability model to the whole basin predicts that biocrusts are present in 2.7 × 10⁵m²and contain 11–72 Mg of aboveground carbon, based on the 90% probability of occurrence. Our study illustrates the synergistic effect of combining field and remote sensing data for understanding the distribution and biomass of biocrusts, a foundational community in the carbon balance of this region. Extreme weather events and changing climate conditions in this region, especially those influencing snow accumulation and persistence, could have significant effects on the future distribution and abundance of biocrusts and therefore soil organic carbon storage in the McMurdo Dry Valleys. 

Abstract Record high temperatures were documented in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, on 18 March 2022, exceeding average temperatures for that day by nearly 30°C. Satellite imagery and stream gage measurements indicate that surface wetting coincided with this warming more than 2 months after peak summer thaw and likely exceeded thresholds for rehydration and activation of resident organisms that typically survive the cold and dry conditions of the polar fall in a freeze‐dried state. This weather event is notable in both the timing and magnitude of the warming and wetting when temperatures exceeded 0°C at a time when biological communities and streams have typically entered a persistent frozen state. Such events may be a harbinger of future climate conditions characterized by warmer temperatures and greater thaw in this region of Antarctica, which could influence the distribution, activity, and abundance of sentinel taxa. Here we describe the ecosystem responses to this weather anomaly reporting on meteorological and hydrological measurements across the region and on later biological observations from Canada Stream, one of the most diverse and productive ecosystems within the McMurdo Dry Valleys.